Countdown to 2000: Party or Panic

Nov 1, 1999 12:00 PM, D. Anthony Nichter

Dateline: Las Vegas, Dec. 27, 1999 - In what has been labeled as the "longest parking lot in the world," tens of thousands of holiday travelers literally shut down Interstate 15 leading from California to Las Vegas.

Las Vegas, Dec. 29, 1999 - Hotels and resorts here report they have no vacancies. Las Vegas strip resorts reached 100 percent occupancy a full week prior to the New Year's Eve weekend. Thousands of other travelers are still arriving, but are being turned away. There have been reports of near-riots.

Las Vegas, Dec. 31, 1999 - Police and resort officials estimate that approximately 850,000 to 900,000 visitors have positioned themselves for what is anticipated to be the largest Las Vegas New Year's Eve celebration ever - triple the usual number of holiday visitors. Police are apprehensive, though hopeful, that all will proceed smoothly as partygoers welcome the New Year.

Las Vegas, Jan 1, 2000 - Reports are sketchy as a near-complete media blackout was imposed by the commander of the National Guard and by the executive director of FEMA. Last reports indicated all area hospitals have been swamped with New Year's Eve partygoers who were seriously injured in a series of explosions along the strip. In what officials are now calling acts of domestic terrorism, a series of well-placed devices, each timed for various intervals, detonated over a four-mile stretch of Las Vegas Boulevard. A mass evacuation of the entire strip corridor is in progress.

Admittedly, these scenarios are merely hypothetical - not unlike a movie plot about aliens invading and attacking casinos with powerful energy beams. And like any good plot, whether the bad guys are of this planet or extra-terrestrials, we discount the shear notion of such an event actually occurring. But should we?

Be open-minded to disaster Apparently, some scenarios are just too ridiculous to take seriously, so the mind moves on to those events that have a greater sense of both reality and likelihood of occurring. But there are two problems with such thinking:

* it discounts the possibility of certain events occurring merely because they are outside the range of the thinker'sability to conceive; and therefore,

* a blind spot is created where viable risks are not taken seriously and addressed proactively. The result is a recipe for disaster.

Understanding the risks With the remainder of the 1900s now measured in mere weeks, we in Las Vegas face the daunting task of ascertaining what may occur here in the largest Millennium Celebration ever. Every company, casino, hotel, resort, and governmental agency at the state and local levels have been examining the possible scenarios for the past couple of years. Owing to the divergent perspectives of the participants, the outcome-models are highly polemic. However, as one looks at the crystal ball - cracked though it may be - one cannot escape the proven methodology of applying sound principles of risk management.

Put simply, risk is the chance that a particular event may occur at some point in the future. The likelihood of occurrence is measured within a spectrum ranging from no chance at all to absolute certainty. (Mathematically speaking, this range is represented as 0.00 - 1.00.) In layman's terms, the chance of an event occurring can be said to range from none to slight, moderate, probable or certain.

Risk can be viewed from two perspectives: speculative (the outcome can be positive or negative), and pure (the outcome can be neutral or negative). Gambling is an example of speculative risk, as is investing. Flying in an aircraft or driving one's car are viewed as pure risk - either you're going to crash or simply arrive unscathed.

Risk carries the chance that a negative event will occur, and that incident will have a particular impact upon the organization. Such impacts have dollar values attached, but can simply be stated as no impact, slight, moderate, severe, and catastrophic. This is the scale of criticality.

The principles of risk management require the application of sound strategies that will impact the risk and its deleterious outcome. Briefly stated, those strategies include:

* loss avoidance - eliminating or not engaging in an activity where the risk exceeds the rewards.

* loss prevention - to reduce the frequency of losses.

* loss reduction - to reduce the severity of loss-events.

* loss segregation - to separate the units exposed to risk so that no single casualty can totally disrupt a business operation.

* loss financing - purchasing commercial insurance or retaining the loss and paying for it directly from reserved funds.

Regardless of this comprehensive five-step strategy, Las Vegas and its unique culture present a hearty challenge to anyone attempting to predict what may happen come December 31, 1999. Since it's safe to say that no person can actually know with reliable certainty what will occur, we shall, instead, examine some issues that cannot be discounted. These topics must be calculated in the equation when determining risk on an individual, communal, and societal level. There is no way a business can accurately apply risk management strategies if it has not first determined what exposures it faces. From some 127 primary and secondary risk exposure events we have identified, we shall now direct our attention in this article to only a few (presented in no particular order).

Threat #1: Crowd control New Year's Eve 1999 will present some of the most difficult challenges to local law enforcement and resort security personnel. With current projections around 850,000 and still climbing, every available resource will be maximized and stretched to the breaking point.

Who can forget the famous Tyson-Holyfield fight in which Tyson chewed off Holyfield's ear? After the fight crowd exited the arena, the riotous activity in the hotel lobby and porte cochere of the MGM Grand Hotel and Casino left several dozen spectators and patrons injured. For an idea of what the stampede was like, you had only to view the video tape afterwards to appreciate that the human creature is capable of stomping on and over his fellows just as those non-sentient creatures in the animal kingdom. The massive display of disorder was not contained at the MGM Grand. Terrified patrons fled the property to other nearby casinos hoping to seek shelter from the pandemonium. Point to make: Regardless of how well you may plan for disruption, an incident at a nearby casino can spill over and affect your own business.

In August of 1998, during an annual event in Reno, Nev., called "Hot August Nights," riots erupted in the downtown district. The annual event attracts approximately 100,000 people to the Reno area. According to police, the event was marred when about 2,000 gang members arrived from northern California and, fueled by booze, became disorderly. The gang members began to throw rocks and bottles at both police and other partygoers. Soon, the police donned riot gear. About 150 specially equipped officers arrived to quell the rioters.

Bottom line: Most annual events designed to be festive in nature actually end up being that way. However, add to the mix gangs and alcohol, and there is a recipe for massive disruption and confrontation.

Threat #2: Alcohol It is no secret to anyone that the alcohol flows 24 hours per day, seven days per week in Las Vegas. With the New Year's celebration, more alcoholic beverages will flow than any other time. While regular consumption by most locals and visitors is usually managed pretty well, Millennium level drinking will usher in problems all its own.

In Nevada, guests drown in swimming pools, inebriated pedestrians walk in front of on-coming traffic, and drunken visitors get into their rental cars and wrap them around telephone poles. The availability of alcohol and the unbridled atmosphere is too tempting for many visitors.

All alcohol servers (bartenders, waitresses) and enforcers (security officers) in Las Vegas must attend a four-hour alcohol awareness training program before they are permitted to work in an environment where alcohol is served. For the most part, this training intervenes upon those who imbibed too much. Considering, however, that 32 million visitors came to town last year, some will escape the watchful eye of even the most vigilant trained employees.

Threat #3: Biological contamination Whether as an act of nature or a deliberate consequence of malicious criminality, biological contamination is a scenario that scares everyone - and rightly so! You could be relaxing on a cruise ship, checked into a hotel, eating at a restaurant, or simply sitting next to a stranger at a gaming table who is coughing in your direction. The galaxy of microbes knows no boundaries. New viruses and drug-resistant bacteria are spreading at such an alarming rate that they are reversing the once proud victories over infectious disease. These insidious microbes can strike anywhere, be it first or third world country - and at anytime.

The list is long. From the notorious "flesh-eating" streptococcus-A bacteria, tuberculosis, AIDS, Ebola, and hanta virus, to typhoid, salmonella, anthrax, whooping cough, Lyme, and Legionnaire's Disease, most people are relatively ignorant of both the contagion and their vulnerability to them. A mere generation ago, most people had never heard of these microbes.

With international travel at its highest peak in history, the opportunity for spreading contagion is now the greatest. Diseases, once relatively contained in remote areas of the world, are crossing international borders at an alarming rate.

Employees in the hospitality industries, such as gaming, lodging, dining, theme parks, to name a few, face risks that many members of the general public do not. Today's casinos and hotels are populated by patrons from all over the world who hail from the poorest to the richest nations. Such a concentration of humanity is a ripe breeding ground for contagion of every species.

As if nature's wrath was not bad enough, consider the possibility of contagion being used as a tool of biological warfare. And don't think it can't happen! In a recent real situation that fortunately proved to be a false alarm, the threat and the fear were profound.

In early 1998, a special FBI haz-mat team left Washington, D.C. and swiftly proceeded to Las Vegas. The local SWAT team was mobilized as well as specially trained chemical/biological weapon experts from nearby Nellis Air Force Base. The entire cadre swooped down on an office complex and arrested two men. Allegedly these suspects possessed military grade anthrax. Forty petri dishes were sealed, as well as the Mercedes they were carried in, and hauled to the Air Force Base for a complete inspection. Soon afterwards a nationwide media frenzy erupted alluding to some sort of terroristic plot to launch the deadly anthrax into the general public.

The hysteria subsided when it was eventually learned that the materials actually were benign, in that, the vials only contained anthrax vaccine, not the bacillus itself. Apparently, the men were conducting research requiring use of the vaccine when another colleague became aware of the activity. Not possessing all of the details, he called the FBI who had to assume the worse. Though taking a few hits in the media for being overly theatrical in the matter, the FBI responded, correctly, that with a pathogen like anthrax, there was little room for lesser options. This time it was not the real thing. But what about the next time? Everyone prays that it doesn't happen when 850,000 visitors come to the mecca of gaming and entertainment!

Threat #4: Bombs and incendiary devices No industry in North America has been immune from the effects of bomb threats or actual explosions. This threat category represents one of the most serious issues that management must address. The gaming and hospitality industry has had its share of bomb threats and explosive devices. On many occasions, hotels and casinos have had to be evacuated because a telephone caller threatened to detonate a device planted somewhere on the property. Indeed, this issue presents management with the greatest anxiety.

To properly assess the threat of explosive devices, professionals need to examine, as with all risk categories, the issue from a global context and winding down concentrically to regional and then to local. Beginning with a global perspective, international incidents should be evaluated.

Closer to home, explosives are not foreign to the world of entertainment development. In November 1996 in Tucson, a car bomb exploded in a country club parking lot, killing a prominent real estate developer. It had the markings of a "professional hit," according to the Sheriff's Department. The victim had huge gambling debts and also was involved in deals, including some that failed, with people who build and finance casinos. At the time of his death the developer was in the process of launching several casino projects.

Suffice it to say that this category of threat assessment must be treated with the utmost seriousness. During the great New Year's Celebration when the city will have three times the normal capacity of end-of-the-year party-goers, bomb threat scenarios take on an entirely different perspective.

Threat #5: Celebrity stalker risks Protection of celebrities who entertain in the Vegas showrooms is a year-round issue, but the New Year's Eve twist is this: Every property in town will be featuring major acts. Unlike the typical weekend when only the major strip properties provide big-name acts, the final weekend of the millennium will see every resort hosting feature productions. Las Vegas will have a greater concentration of big-name performers than any city in the United States.

Notwithstanding the shear volume of feature entertainers, the Millennium and the disjointed thinking associated with it may increase the risk of exposure of many entertainers to unusual behavior from fans - as well as enemies. Security professionals at the resorts need to take account of the "aberration-coefficient" out there among the fans of big-name entertainers.

Consider the following: Olivia Newton-John is harassed by a fan who sees her as a muse from heaven. At the fan's home police find a "death-list" with 83 names - Newton-John's name is on that list. Mark David Chapman stalks John Lennon. After the killing,Chapman tells police, "The Beatles changed the world, and I changed them."

Experts in the field of celebrity stalkers report that as many as 100,000 people are pursuing encounters with public figures for inappropriate reasons. One California security firm tracks about 4,200 potential stalkers as part of a threat assessment database for its 100 big-name star clients.

Security departments within the resorts would be well advised to play a more assertive role in protecting the welfare of their big-name celebrities, especially this particular New Year's Eve. With many unstable, mentally ill persons moving freely through society, it would not be beyond their comprehension to make "final contact" with the object of their obsession during this Millennium celebration. Is this thinking so obtuse that resorts are not able to contemplate it? If so, they may wish to stretch their collective thinking because, simply put, it's not beyond the perspective of a mentally ill stalker - especially during the one event that is never to be repeated in his lifetime - the ushering in of the next Millennium!

Threat #6: Cults and other fringe groups Much has been written lately about the myriad fringe groups espousing "strange" belief systems regarding end-of-the-age ideologies. In one recent local article, a psychologist warned the casino industry to be vigilant for cult groups who see the Millennium as their final opportunity to exit the planet and enter the new age in a new "body" (one without corporeal form). The doctor went so far as to advise casinos to lock the access way to their roofs because, "it is not beyond the thinking of some groups to ascend to the roof, hold hands, and in Jonestown style, leap from the roof." Some in the industry may frown at such thoughts; however, this is the sort of threat assessment that must be conducted by security professionals.

Recent history reminds us of the mass suicide that occurred in Jonestown, courtesy of cult leader Jim Jones, and the more recent group suicide of the Heaven's Gate cult.

Threat #7: Fires - high-rise conflagrations When a fire erupts in a casino or hotel, internal control mechanisms are able both to swiftly suppress the fire and evacuate the occupants. Fire engine teams arrive within moments because vehicles have room to pull to the side and clear a lane for the emergency trucks. Evacuees are led outside to staging areas and wait until the situation has been rendered safe. All of that on a good day. But what happens when major streets are closed to all traffic and converted to pedestrian malls? What will happen when the term "traffic jam" takes on Los Angeles freeway-at-rush-hour proportions? Where will the evacuees go and what will be the staging area when it is already crammed with thousands of celebrants? Welcome to a high-rise fire on New Year's Eve in any major city USA.

Some in the lodging industry embrace the attitude that of the millions of visitors staying in U.S. hotels each year, the number of tragedies is actually small. Such callous thinking overlooks the fact that in many cases, human error, both employee and guest, played a major role in the number of lives lost. And this is the primary consideration that must be made by security and building safety professionals in the lodging industry.

Threat #8: Bank holdups and armored truck heists Not all threats to the gaming industry necessarily have to occur within the actual casino or resort. Bank holdups and armored truck heist threats have a potential negative effect upon the gaming industry because these events destabilize the overall profile of leisure and hospitality within the community. When assessing risks to a specific business, one must also assess broader risks to the industry at large and the community wherein that industry sector operates.

Bank robbers in Las Vegas committed 56 holdups in 1990 and 101 in 1991. That figure jumped to 169 holdups in 1996 among the 335 federally insured banks. Such an increase leaves Nevada with a 50 percent bank-robbery rate according to the FBI, as well as possessing the dubious title of being ranked No.1 in bank heists for the year.

Even though casinos have experienced their share of heists, overall, the industry still enjoys relative immunity from this sort of crime. According to experts, if a sector of business experiences a rash of particular crimes (as the local banks have), and that industry begins to fortify its facilities against these sort of crimes (as the banks are doing), then the criminals tend to look for the next vulnerable target. That could be the casino. Come New Year's Eve, when all available law enforcement are dedicated to traffic and crowd control throughout this mecca of entertainment, some criminals may perceive the opportunity to hit the cages (areas where the casino money is stored) as too good to pass up!

Security professionals within the gaming industry are well aware of the risks involved with warehousing literally millions of dollars. In 1992 at the Stardust, $1 million was stolen as robbers used smoke bombs as cover to attack a Loomis courier, while still in the casino. No shots were fired.

Over the past several years many casinos have upgraded their security by installing more and better CCTV systems. Further, casino cages are reinforced with bars and security officers have received specific training in procedures to follow in the event of a holdup. Still, will this be a sufficient deterrent for Millennium thieves hell-bent on a "big-score" for New Year's Eve?

If thieves are not able to penetrate the elaborate security posture of the casino, they may attempt an armored truck heist while a delivery is being made to the facility. In early 1993, a Loomis truck was relieved of $2.9 million while making a delivery at the MGM Grand Hotel and Theme Park. In October of that same year another Loomis truck was robbed of $3.1 million while on route to deliver cash for Circus Circus Hotel and Casino.

Summary This article has focused on a handful of threats out of a vast array of possibilities. To properly explore a threat category facing any particular business, one must consider all possibilities and options. Thinking outside of the box of conventional wisdom is required. Threat scenarios and considerations bordering on the weird and obtuse are sometimes necessary if one is to avoid the critical error of overlooking potential hazards right "underneath your feet."

Have we learned all that is necessary for handling the great Millennium celebration? As the cliche goes, only time will tell. However, with careful planning, detailed preparation, and most importantly, a thorough analysis of incidents domestically and internationally, many businesses will incur minimal disruption.

Applying sound risk management strategies to already identified and prioritized threats is the only viable way to assure a smooth transition from this century into the next. Good luck!

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